I am pleased with the local numbers out from the nation’s major data trackers. The latest Case-Shiller report released Tuesday morning showed that seasonally-adjusted home prices fell 0.7 percent nationally between October and November 2011, and dropped by about 3.7 percent since November 2010. We did sooo much better, even when looking at stodgy Case-Shiller which I don’t like for many reasons, for one that they do not include new homes sales. In Dallas, the index reported that home prices decreased on a monthly basis (1.3%) as well as went down between November 2010 and November 2011 (.8%). That is less than one percent and well could be a margin of error.
Researchers at Fiserv and Moody’s Analytics tell us that Dallas-area home prices will drop furth 1.3 percent by the third quarter of this year. But they are expected to rise 0.4 percent in 2013. This company tells us local prices declined 2.7 percent in 2011.
Steve Brown quoted David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist:
“While prices continued to fall in most [U.S.] markets, sales activity picked up at the end of 2011, setting the foundation for price stabilization in 2012,” David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv, said in the report. “We stand by our projection that average U.S. home prices will move sideways in 2012.
Stiff also thinks increasing sales activity will begin to drive small increases in prices in the U.S. metro areas that were not as hard hit by the housing bubble burst, places like Houston, Fort Worth and Salt Lake City. He’s saying Fort Worth can even expect price increases of 1 to 3 percent by the third quarter of this year. Gosh, let’s all move to Cowtown!
Nationally, not so good: home prices are forecast to decline 2.7 percent by the third quarter before rising a teeny bit in 2013.
U.S. home prices overall have taken a hit, losing about one-third of value since the market peaked in 2006.
Talking to Dallas agents, they say this isn’t surprising at all. Monday morning meetings at many brokers are now focusing on multiple offer transactions, the likes of which have not been seen since 2006 or 2007. With less inventory and more leasing, there are fewer homes available to sell. I have also started hearing of more FSBOs or For Sale By Owner. Two friends are working a deal now on a restored North Dallas ranch with a couple from out of town, and look at this lovely home pictured. I call this house the story of the Dallas real estate bubble. It sold June 15, 2007 for $2,750,000 with Cynthia Beaird at Allie Beth Allman, coming down from a high of $2.9. The last listing price was $1.9 with Jan Baldwin of Briggs Freeman Sothbys. The owners took it off the market in frustration, no offers. It sold in ten days right after the New Year. The buyers lived near the neighborhood, literally came knocking on the door I’m told. And that’s one more Real Estate transaction not in MLS.
— Daily Local Real Estate Dish By Dallas Real Estate Insider — Candy Evans at CandysDirt.com